I remember reading papers of my interest, on wondering about the authors, who they are, where they work, and so on… it must be a sign of my age (and more concise interests?) that now I read a really good collegiate paper by 16 authors, and I know personally 11 of them!
Average biomass distributions (kg km–2) of skipjack, yellowfin and bigeye tuna in the Pacific Ocean basin for 2015 (2011−2020) (left), and mean anomalies (kg km–2) from the average 2015 biomass distribution of each tuna species projected to occur by 2050 (2044−2053) under the RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenario (right).
I have written before about the impact of climate change on the distribution of pacific tuna stocks, the impact on tuna dependent PICs and now this paper (by many of the same authors as the others) that tackles what both tuna RFMOS in the pacific should do about this, not only from the management perspective but also from the global legal framework set-up by UNCLOS and UNFSA.
As usual, I recommend you read the original, as nothing beats that! I just quote here the abstract and the “Discussion and actionable recommendations” (which is a very nice subtitle!)
Climate change is predicted to alter the distributions of tropical tuna stocks in the Pacific Ocean. Recent modelling projects significant future shifts in tuna biomass from west to east, and from national jurisdictions to high seas areas. As the distributions of these stocks change, the relevant regional fisheries management organisations (RFMOs)—the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC) and the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC)—will need to develop an expanded framework for cooperation and collaboration to fulfil their conservation and management responsibilities under international law. The key elements of a possible expanded framework for cooperation can be developed, and fundamental areas for collaboration identified, by applying and adapting principles established in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the United Nations Fish Stocks Agreement, and the constituent instruments of the RFMOs themselves. Our analysis reveals a wide range of important issues requiring cooperation, and three clear priorities. First, a formal mechanism for cooperation is needed to enable effective and efficient decision-making and action by the two RFMOs on key issues. Second, further cooperation is required in scientific research and modelling to better understand the biology and distributions of Pacific tuna stocks and how they will respond to climate change, and to inform stock assessments and harvest strategies. Third, the RFMOs must cooperate to define appropriate limits on fishing for each stock in a way that ensures they are compatible across the two organisations, taking into account their different members and management regimes.
Discussion and actionable recommendations
As our analysis has shown, there are a wide range of important issues on which WCPFC and IATTC will need to cooperate to combat climate-driven changes to the distribution of tropical Pacific tuna stocks. Some of these need to be addressed as a priority, while some will be more appropriately addressed over a longer timeframe. Some are complex and will require potentially delicate and difficult discussions, while others are more straightforward and should be easily achievable. Drawing together the issues identified across the four areas of RFMO activity discussed above, three concrete actions with cross-cutting effects can be identified as priorities.
First, WCPFC and IATTC must establish a more comprehensive approach to cooperation, elevating it to a formal governance issue, in order to ensure that the two organisations can take and implement timely, informed, effective, and transparent decisions. At present, cooperation between the two RFMOs is based on a rather ad hoc combination of: observing meetings; exchanges between Executive Directors; sharing the text of conservation and management measures; exchanging data; authorizing reciprocal observer coverage; and cooperating on some northern stocks through the Joint Working Group. In adopting measures for the overlap area as a short-term solution in 2012, the two organisations agreed that a longer-term process should be established to explore avenues for managing tuna stocks in the entire Pacific Ocean (IATTC, 2012b; WCPFC, 2013). Ten years later, the time has come to establish a more formal mechanism to facilitate that sort of process, which will be critical to successful cooperation in the other issues identified in this paper. A low risk and immediately actionable starting point toward this would be to establish a joint working group, involving Secretariat staff and/or members of both Commissions, which could be charged to examine and provide recommendations on specific priority matters for cooperation—but over time, a more sophisticated mechanism is likely to be required.
A second priority for cooperation is to advance scientific knowledge of key issues to improve understanding of the biology and distribution of Pacific tuna stocks and how they will respond to climate change, and inform the conduct of stock assessments and the development of harvest strategies. International law requires States to make decisions based on the best scientific evidence available, to cooperate in scientific research, and to strengthen scientific research capacity in relation to highly migratory stocks—and it is evident from the discussion above that such research is essential to enable the two RFMOs to consider and prioritize action on other issues. Since there is already a significant practice of scientific collaboration to build on, such as the Pacific-wide stock assessments for northern stocks which have been facilitated by the ISC, we suggest that agreement to cooperate on further issues—including sampling, modelling approaches and data collection—should be sought and actioned as quickly as possible.
Third, it is clear that WCPFC and IATTC must cooperate to define appropriate limits on fishing for each stock in a way that is compatible across the two organisations, taking into account their different members and management regimes. This is likely to be a complex task, which will necessarily be informed by some of the other areas of cooperation discussed in this paper—such as stock assessments, the development of harvest strategies, and a common understanding of how fishing limits are currently managed across the two RFMOs. It will also require an effective mechanism for cooperation, which ensures that the process is robust and transparent, and that the legitimate rights and interests of all States—as well as conservation and management principles—are properly taken into account. In this respect, one starting point might be for the two RFMOs to agree on some principles for dealing with shifting stocks to guide their work.
Finally, this discussion has also revealed some broader legal and policy issues which will require further consideration. First, as a matter of the international legal framework, further clarification is required as to how the ‘duty to cooperate’, which applies to each State whose nationals are fishing on the high seas, applies between RFMOs with jurisdiction over straddling and highly migratory stocks in adjacent areas of high seas. In this respect, the predicted climate-driven redistribution of Pacific tropical tuna stocks has highlighted a gap in the UNFSA, which does not clearly provide a framework for cooperation between RFMOs, or establish how ‘compatibility’ applies in relation to stocks which straddle areas of high seas under the competence of two different RFMOs, or the shift in distribution of fishery resources as a result of climate change. Second, not only are fish stocks predicted to move from an area under the jurisdiction of one RFMO to an area under the jurisdiction of another RFMO, but from areas under national jurisdiction to areas of high seas. This raises extremely difficult questions about the sovereign rights of coastal States, the potential to recognize or compensate loss and damage, and the allocation and transferability of rights from the EEZ to the high seas. Given the importance of tuna stocks to communities and economies in States across the Pacific Ocean—and particularly the predicted effects on many of the SIDS in the WCPO—finding just and equitable solutions to these difficult questions will require not only careful legal and policy analysis, but further cooperation between WCPFC and IATTC.